Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. 56% of independent voters in . Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. Previous Morning Consult polling has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. When the dates . Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. Barnes, 35, would become the youngest member of the Senate, as well as Wisconsin's first Black senator, if he wins in November. We strive to report with honesty and integrity, shining a light on those in power and the progressive politics movement. @eyokley, Download Fastest Growing Brands 2022 Report, Sen. Ron Johnson speaks about the origins of COVID-19 at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in June 2021. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. Bill Clinton 1993-2001. We want to hear from you. A Division of NBCUniversal. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnson's job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. Got a confidential news tip? Becky Can I marry this table, or this, you know, clock? Share: Listen Download. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate. Why has the electorate increasingly polarized over Johnson? Voters do not. One is that it illustrates how Johnson has come back from poor ratings before. His current term ends on January 3, 2029. A few weeks after the 2020 election, the Crystal Ball put out an early look at the 2022 Senate races. In the United States, presidential job approval ratings were first conducted by George Gallup (estimated to be 1937) to gauge public support for the president of the United States during their term. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. 2020 Senate Elections (55) That poll . MU poll also shows Michels/Kleefisch in virtual tie in GOP primary for governor. He does so despite woeful approval ratings among Wisconsin . But Democratic Gov. Plus 18 to minus 5 among voters in denser, metropolitan suburbs. A poll taken in June 2022 found that 37% of respondents thought favorably of the senator, while 46% did not, giving him a net approval rating of -9. Since 2015-16, Johnson's popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and . They might have been in real danger of losing their seats in 2022, but thankfully for Democrats, both are retiring. Mandela Barnes in the general election in Wisconsin, NBC News projected. By Eli Yokley. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. But Democrats believe that Johnson will suffer due to his strong support of Trump, even though polls show Republicans benefiting in 2022 due to Biden's low approval ratings. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation.. 1 digital platform for progressive news, reaching millions of people each month. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). A FiveThirtyEight report last week suggested Barnes, who has endorsements from progressive Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything. All in all, 39 percent of independent voters now strongly disapprove of Johnson, nearly five times as many as those who strongly approve. Republicans will probably say that they want a more progressive candidate like Mandela to run against they said the same thing about Tammy, a liberal LGBTQ woman from Madison with a long congressional record, she said. And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. Governors net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. And he doesn't shy away from progressive social issues: His TikTok account, for instance, features posts of him calling for the Senate to end the filibuster, codify Roe v. Wade into law and pass the Equality Act to enact protections for transgender people. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. Biden's approval rating, right now, is mired at around 42% to 43% on average. Both politicians were backed by 43 percent of likely voters. Biden Job Approval on Issues. The Wisconsin Republican remains deeply disliked by his constituents. A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). The majority of senators have PARS scores in the single digits, indicating that their approval rating is largely determined by the partisanship of their states. Johnsons ratings were minus 7 last August, minus 6 last October, minus 12 in February of this year and minus 10 in April. Johnson's campaign has lashed out at Barnes as a "career political activist" who is too far left for the purple state of Wisconsin, which Trump carried in 2016 and only narrowly lost in 2020. @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (63 posts) Nearly six years ago, national Republicans had largely written off Johnsons eventually successful re-election campaign as Morning Consult surveys showed 45 percent of Wisconsin voters approved of his job performance, 33 percent disapproved and 22 percent had no opinion. Democratic President Joe Biden was also underwater in the latest poll, with just 40% approving of him and 57% disapproving. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Phil Scott has not yet announced whether he is running, but it is expected that he will, as of May 12, 2022. Shaded rows denote senators whose seats are up in 2020, excluding those senators who are not seeking reelection. McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. More:'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, More:Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. But whatever strengths Johnson brings to his bid for a third term, his current standing with the Wisconsin public poses some real perils. With the prospect that abortion could soon be illegal in many states, some people may face difficult decisions about what to do if they have an unwanted pregnancy. How Every Senator Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement Senator, polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Most Americans are sickened by Joe Biden as much as they are sickened by Donald Trump. 2023 CNBC LLC. RCP House Ratings, Map. For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. It's just that people in the legacy media call me one and all of a sudden, you become one. For this analysis, Franklin and I examined Johnsons popularity with different demographic and political groups: men, women, old, young, liberal, conservative, urban, rural, suburban, etc. Jimmy Carter 1977-81. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation. McConnell beat Grimes 56 percent to 41 percent. Johnson's approval ratings have decreased in the last few years, according to polling by the Marquette Law School. Then we compared Johnsons current standing among these groups with two earlier periods in his 12-year Senate career: 2019, when he enjoyed his best-sustained ratings in Marquettes polling; and late 2015 to early 2016, which was Johnsons low point in popularity before now. (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. Senators net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states. Sign-in to take full advantage of your membership, including an ad-free website and improved browsing experience. Theres such a striking decline, and its a decline that has been sustained through 2020, 2021 and now into 2022. The world has been led by intensive and extensive waves of darkness from renaissance all the way down to the Covid crisis. Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. The Democrats could have run a dead person against Donald Trump in 2020 and the dead person probably would have received more votes than Joe Biden And we would probably be better off today if a dead person had won in 2020, rather than war mongering liar Joe Biden. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. Dan McKees mediocre +2 net approval rating, the fact that he is running for the office for the first time (he became governor only because he was the lieutenant governor when the old governor resigned), the pro-Republican national mood and Rhode Islands elasticity. In 2016, Johnson easily outperformed Donald Trump on the same ballot in these three counties. This includes Sens. In the race for governor, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and Republican construction executive Tim . Senator, led by Lt. It began in the age of enlightment (renaissance). . Fewer people dont know him or are undecided in their views of him. Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Maggie Hassan and Catherine Cortez Masto all have PARS scores of at least +7, suggesting that they are capable of outperforming the base partisanship of their state. With the help of Morning Consult, which polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators every quarter, weve created a statistic that Im playfully calling Popularity Above Replacement Senator (PARS). Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings. Americans vote for the politician they hate the least, not the politician they support. Democratic Gov. RCP Senate Ratings, Map. Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. Contact Us, Take the next step, become a member. ago. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. Hitt said Johnsons message in a Wall Street Journal op-ed he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. (from left) Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., are all facing . Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. John F. Kennedy 1961-63. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. But his rating among anti-Trump voters has steadily worsened, going from minus-24 in 2016 to minus-45 in 2020 to minus-58 this year. Evers, by contrast, had a net positive rating, with 48% approving of the job he did and 45% disapproving. He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Wisconsin is over and over the one percentage point or less state the land of the nail-biter, said Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. Republican U.S. Sen Ron Johnson stayed about the same, with a 36% . The Supreme Court Not So Much. A Morning Consult poll earlier this year had Johnson's approval rating at 36 percent. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. The Republican is currently seeking reelection to a third term, breaking a promise to serve no more than two. This poll paired each of the top four primary candidates against Johnson. In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Barnes still leads, with 25% of the vote versus 21% for Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, 9%for state treasurer Sarah Godlewski. His net favorability improved during the campaign year of 2016 from net negative to net positive. Abstract The modern civilization is the antithesis of religious way of life. But what we cant be as confident about is whether its reversible.. Compared with his peak in popularity in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 when his average favorability rating was plus 10 the downturn is notable. Finally, the senator who ranks last in PARS is also up for reelection in 2020, and its a big name: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. With Biden similarly struggling with independents, Sykes said the stakes have been raised for Democrats to nominate a candidate in their August primary who is acceptable to voters embarrassed by Johnson.. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who is running to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate greets guests during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The reelection races of Sens. Johnson, 67, is also the subject of an ethics complaint over a $280,000 gift to his chief of staff, which he argued was intended for the employees cancer treatments, NBC News reported. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson's seat as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. A trio of red-state Democrats Kentuckys Andy Beshear, Kansass Laura Kelly and Louisianas John Bel Edwards all have PARGs between +31 and +51 as well. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. Help assure the future of citys fastest growing publication. According to the survey of about 800 registered voters, Democratic Governor Tony Evers' approval rating slid from 50% in August to 45%. Barnes, 35 also has the support of independents, with 52% of respondents backing him over Johnson, a sizable leap from 41% in June. Johnson, who is one of Trumps biggest supporters in the Senate, has come under fire in recent months for controversial remarks, including arguing Social Security and Medicare should be categorized as discretionary spending, spreading misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines potentially causing AIDS, saying he doesnt trust the FBI after it searched Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate last week, and sending text messages to aides revealed at the January 6 hearings indicating he wanted to hand-deliver fake electors to former Vice President Mike Pence during the 2020 election. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. Finally, the fault lines in the electorate are deeper today than they were back then. Senator, Johnson won one of them, getting 45% versus 42% for Lasry. He ran behind the other three, with 44% versus 46% for Barnes, 43% versus 45% for Godlewski and 43% versus 44% for Nelson. And a high number of respondents who dont know which candidate they favor 36% in the primary for senator and 32% in the primary for governor allows lots of room for both races to change. Several conservatives involved in the state argued that Johnson casting himself as foe of Biden and the national Democratic brand could help shore up his intraparty standing. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politicians net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the states partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example.