Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. Farming also is huge here. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. I think its very political right now, honestly. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Theres significant variability among them though. He says hell vote for Trump. Im not even sure what direction were going.. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. Your email address will not be published. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. I kind of keep in my bubble. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. You expect the price of things to go up, thats inflation for you, Tammy said. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. The counties are also mostly small and rural. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). To accept cookies, click continue. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Its too big. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. They need to take care of the older people here. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. It will cycle through. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. Im not happy with the way things are now. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. I am under that impression. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. I think all politicians are crooks. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. He didnt vote in 2016 either. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. What you need to know, summarized in one email. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. What happened to our Democratic Party? Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. About The Author. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Medicare is becoming a joke. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. I would never vote any other way. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. . This includes personalizing content and advertising. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; Blaine County. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. Right now, its horrible. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. Its gone, Jacobs said. People need to get a job, get out and work. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. He isnt so sure about Biden. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . We need creative leadership, Miller said. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat.